Weekly Crop Commentary - 9/15/2023
Sep 15, 2023
Vice President, Grain Division
Good afternoon. Hard to believe we are at the halfway point of September. Sure doesn’t look like it when driving around. Crops are still green, and very little are starting to turn.
Conditions on the Mississippi River continue to deteriorate, and now it looks like record low water levels are in the forecast. Draft restrictions have been imposed and likely more are in the future. This has barge freight screaming higher again this week. This is not what we needed to have happen on the cusp of harvest. Export sales are already on the light side and Brazil is the cheapest market in the world. Higher freight costs are just going to add insult to injury.
Bean processors seem to have purchased some beans this week as the quick ship bids have started to fade. It does appear that there will be a small bit of harvesting next week that likely has their needs covered for a bit. On the corn side it is still red hot. They are constantly looking for offers and they are starting to disappear. Corn harvest for the most part is at least a month away at this point. Once again if you have DP bushels, please keep an eye as basis will fade in the future and if you are taking advantage of free DP it will come to an end at the end of the month. Hope you all have a chance to get out to the Farm Science Review next week.
Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing
September is flying by, as we’re already halfway through the month. It’s been a pretty uneventful week. The calm before the storm you could say. Nov beans have bounced around this week within a 40¢ range and appear to have found some support around the $13.44 level. Dec corn continues on its rangebound trend and tested recent lows on Tuesday at $4.73.
Even though we saw decreased yields in this week’s September WASDE, we increased harvested acre estimates and further increased supply for the 23/24 upcoming corn crop. With a 2.2 billion bu carryout, we continue to see carry in this market and we're going to have a lot of corn to find a home for. In regard to beans, we continue to see spreads widen there too, despite a 50.1 national bean yield average. Demand cuts to exports and crush did no favors for bean prices this week.
Locally, harvest will be here in a few short weeks, and with an 82% gd/ex rating on Ohio corn and 75% gd/ex rating on beans, space and logistics are quickly going to be the name of the game. StoneX came out with their updated Ohio estimates this week with 195 avg corn yield and 58 bpa beans. Basis is going to continue to fade, so don’t wait until it’s too late. Talk with your local merchandiser to develop a game plan for those unsold bushels sooner rather than later. Have a great weekend!Lou Baughman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)
September is half over; beans are starting to turn but will be at least a couple of weeks yet before we see any. For any of you that have grain on Free DP, you will have until the end of the month to price before they roll into the new DP charges. We have not published what those charges will be yet, but it will be soon.
Markets were range bound and most likely will drift lower as the harvest slowly inches closer. As we move forward the bears will continue to hang onto the corn market because of the massive anticipated crop even though the yield has been reduced dramatically. Beans could be a different story because of the tight ending stocks we already have. Have a good weekend.
Will Gase
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)
Good afternoon and happy Friday! Next week is Farm Science Review and I will be working Heritage’s booth on Wednesday, so hope to see some familiar faces!
Local farmers that put beans out early are starting to see color shifts and some are even looking to cut next week. Corn is also changing quickly and with warmer weather next week, I see that advancing even more.
Corn is down roughly 7-8¢ and beans are down about 17¢ since last week. Report day was Tuesday, nothing too surprising happened there. USDA lowered yield for both corn and beans and raised harvest acres for corn. The raising of the harvested acres increased our overall carryout which is causing more stress for exports. Export numbers were already poor and with the low waters on the Mississippi river and poor demand. It’s not looking to get any better. Exports need to pick up for there to be a better chance of higher prices on the corn side. Ethanol and feed can only do so much. While almost none of the crop in our area goes to exports, exports are still one of the biggest driving forces behind corn prices.
Harvest is nearing and it is important to look at how you want to market your grain that is still not on the books. There are plenty of options out there, feel free to reach out to your regional merchandiser to figure out the best strategy for your needs. Have a great weekend!