Weekly Crop Commentary - 9/13/2024

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

We have been seeing some new crop beans trickling into the Upper Sandusky elevator this week along with more old crop corn and beans as people are trying to clear out the bins for fall harvest. With the hot, dry weather and everything drying out at the same time, I believe it could mean a quicker-paced harvest than expected, and storage could be your friend for those that have it.

This week, wheat prices remained consistently in the green, working their way up slightly every day. I believe there are a few reasons why wheat can be seen rallying this week. Russia cut estimates for the country’s wheat production down 1.6 mmt from its last estimate, and exports were cut as well, below USDA estimates. Dryness in the Black Sea continues to cause concerns for planting and in the U.S. Southern Plains. With wheat being up, it is surprising that the market has not really reacted to the ship that was hit by the Russian Missile, threatening stability in using the Black Sea as an export hub as the war continues. There is hope, though, that this wheat rally aids in improving corn prices.

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

We have seen harvest activity pick up this week, as no rain means this crop is drying out rapidly. The early yields we are hearing about are kind of what you would expect with little rain for the last month. We will see many more get going next week as we get to the last half of the month. It is going to be a very different harvest from last year.

The markets seem to have found a floor for the time being. The USDA came out with its newest forecast yesterday and did not send any surprises through the market. We are looking at carryout numbers that will not let the market rally a lot as we move forward. Price action could work similar to last year unless we have a crop problem in South America. Today, if they have a problem, it should lend support to our price, but that will be seen over the next 4 to 5 months. If they don’t have an issue, we will see these markets stay flat as the end user will push to buy what they need.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Harvest is underway! We’re having our first extended and weekend hours at Marysville today and tomorrow. If you would like to be added to your branch’s text distribution list for hours, please let your local branch know. We’re seeing a mix of both corn and beans delivered. From what I'm gathering, moisture and yields are all over the board. We’ve seen soybeans as dry as 8% and corn as dry as 12.3% right out of the field. Granted, those are outliers to most of the bushels we’ve received, but still reality for those customers. With everything so dry, please be safe and practice good maintenance on equipment, as we’ve already seen one field fire this week.

The corn and bean markets seem to have found a plateau for the moment. Corn is up a couple of cents on the week, and soybeans are down about a penny from last Friday. The USDA WASDE report on Thursday revealed a slightly higher national yield and production for corn, but it was not enough to change the market significantly. Soybean numbers were unchanged from the previous report. I think you’ll agree that a flat market right now is better than the down market we saw this summer. Have a great weekend, and we’ll see you soon!