Weekly Crop Commentary - 8/9/2024

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. I can’t believe it’s the end of yet another week. Rains seemed to be scattered at best this week. I heard reports from some of 2+ inches, while others got just trace amounts. The crops in spots are sure showing that lack of moisture and heat we have had for the last couple of weeks. Sounds like the temperatures are going to moderate for a while, but no real rains are in the 10 day forecast.

Corn conditions in Monday’s report were down another 2 points in the good to excellent category at 64 compared to 73 for the same week a year ago. Overall for the nation, we are 10 points above last year, so that is a big factor right now. Soybean conditions were unchanged on the week at 63 and behind last year by 4 points. On the national scale, bean conditions are 14 points better than the same week last year. It's no wonder the index funds continue to be short of the grain markets. Last week they did buy back 23k contract of their short position, but added 15k contract to the already short soybean position.

Export sales of new crops continue to be lackluster. We did see 36 million bushels of new crop bean sales in this week's report, and the bulk of those look to be headed to China. However, this finally had us break the 2019 sales pace, which is the slowest in the past 5 years. Corn sales were terrible at 10 million bushels, and this too is the second slowest pace in the last 5 years. Farmers were active sellers again this week of old crop bushels, as they have just flat ran out of time. New crop is coming, and they need a spot to put it.

WASDE will be out at noon on Monday, and the Pro Farmer Crop Tour is set to take place August 19-22. It will be interesting to see what they find. Thanks, and have a great weekend.

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

We are another week closer to harvest. The crops, for the most part in my area, look very good, and the area has received rain over the last week. There is some early planted corn dented in the area, but there is also some that just tasseled in the last 10 days. Soybeans look very good, dark green and growing. Ohio's Country Journal has been doing their annual tour and they put Champaign County at 195 yields on corn. I would like to believe this is close, as last year the county average was 198.

The markets keep trending in the wrong direction. As I have written in the last few weeks, it is hard to get a rally when crop conditions across the majority of the corn belt are very good. We need to start looking at what you are going to do with this harvest. I have a few ideas that may work for you other than DP. Come in and talk to your grain buyer about products that may work for you.

It is time to get cleaned up on old crop grain. There is still good movement off the farm, so there is still plenty of corn and soybeans to come to the local market.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Happy Friday. I feel like a broken record concerning the grain markets after yet another week continuing the downward trend. Wheat is the only crop among the major three that looks to end the week higher. Nearby soybean basis has weakened significantly this week and will continue doing so as it meets the fall bid. Monday brings the August WASDE report from USDA at noon. We’ll see their updated yield forecasts for this fall’s harvest.

This morning, we saw a flash sale announcement for new crop soybeans to China, but they are far enough behind on purchases compared to historical amounts that it didn’t make a blip in the market. If you’re waiting for some last-minute bullish headline to sell the last of your old crop, time is running short. It looks to be a beautiful weekend. Enjoy, and we’ll talk to you next week!