Weekly Crop Commentary - 8/23/2024

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. What a fantastic week of weather we have had, other than no rain, once again. Sounds like the furnace door gets opened back up for the next 10 days or so with no real chances for any rains. The crop are really starting to take it on the chin as I make my travels. Beans are quickly turning, and now the issue turns to pod abortion and seed size. Some of the corn is getting far enough along that we may see some test weights come in on the light side. Crop conditions were lower on this week’s report with 3% on beans and 5% on corn. Ohio is now at 57% on corn, versus 74% last year at the same time. The USDA is figuring a 10 bushel per acre yield drop from last year already, so that number seems to be believable. We saw bean conditions drop 3% to 56% this week, and that compares to 72% for the same week last year. Now, the USDA is predicting a record bean yield for Ohio at 59 bushels per acre. With crop ratings 16% lower than last year, I’m not sure that yield is going to happen. Another bright spot is that we did see the USDA this week report sales of over 60 million bushels for the new crop year, so we are seeing value at these price levels. Corn sales were also 51 million bushels for the week. Local corn basis continues to weaken as most of the end users have reduced hours due to space limitations, and we are at the end of August. Bean basis is softer on old crop as the market is beginning the roll to new crop. As always, have a great weekend.

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

Happy Friday! Hope you all enjoyed the cool weather this week. Looks like it’s not going to stick around, unfortunately. Back to the 80s and 90s again next week with no sight of rain until next weekend, potentially. Between the heat and some disease pressure on beans popping up in some areas, I’m a little concerned how yields are going to fair on this bean crop. Things continue to look rough in the southeastern part of the state as drought monitors continue to show worsening conditions and sub soil moisture is dwindling by the day. I know we got lucky with rain around our farm last weekend during those spotty thunderstorms, but some areas have not been as fortunate. We’ll continue to pray for rain.

It’s definitely been another rollercoaster week in the grain market. CZ24 and SX24 tried to test the lows again from last week and are struggling to push up through 20 day moving averages. I know it feels like we’re getting hit from all fronts in Ohio, between a crop that could be lower than the 3-year average, a struggling futures market, and widening basis, but now is the time before harvest gets here to be evaluating your sales and building a game plan! Reach out to your local merchandiser to discuss any old crop if you’re still cleaning out bins and re-evaluate your new crop needs. I understand many are waiting to see how yields finish out, but at least start having those discussions and think through some what-if scenarios so we can help you execute on those plans when the market presents us with some opportunity! Hope you all have a wonderful weekend!

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

It is the first weekend of high school football. We are a week away from Labor Day. Someone in the office asked when I thought harvest would start, I said we usually see something around Farm Science Review time. At this point, I don’t see it being any different this year.

The markets are not being very friendly right now and don’t look to improve much over the next few months. The USDA put out its first harvest forecast for 24/25, and the markets did not react well. The USDA printed the 3rd largest soybean carryout ever, so that is part of the reason we have lost 75 cents in the soybean market in the last 3 weeks. Also, basis keeps fading as we are getting closer to new crop beans which are 30 cents a bushel cheaper than cash beans. The processor does not want, or need, to sit on a bunch of inventory when they can see cheaper supplies 6 weeks from now. The corn market is not much different, except there is carry in the corn market so it is not hurting the processor or ethanol plant to buy corn today, so they are getting plenty. As I have wrote, the farmer has waited until he has no choice to move grain, so he is doing it now, and these places look like harvest has already started.

In looking at new crop grain, the picture is not pretty. We see corn in the mid 3’s and soybeans in the low 9’s. We know these are not what we want for prices, but it is where we are. There is carry in the markets so we know the bins will get filled, but what do we do then? If you want to sit down and talk about options you may have other than DP, let’s see what we can do to get some of your crop marketed.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Good afternoon. Comparing the market to last Friday’s close, corn has had a fairly neutral week and beans are up a little, so I suppose some could say it’s been a good week. Trucks are continuing to roll through Marysville with customers letting go of old crop. With so many bushels coming to market at the end of the season, basis will continue to weaken.

Our soybean average price contract ended last Friday. The final average was discovered at November futures at $11.04, which is $1.32 higher than today. The corn program ended in mid-July with the average December futures at $4.6275, about $0.71 better than today’s current market. The wheat averaging contract this spring finished with July futures at $6.0275, about $0.40 better than the price was at mid-harvest. These are all futures prices, so the final cash price varied by each location’s basis levels. Overall, customers were pleased with all three contracts, and we are looking to offer these again next year.

Alternative contracts, such as the Average Price, Flex Floor, Price Plus, etc., aren’t always a magic wand, but they are excellent tools to diversify your marketing plan. Let us know if you’d like more information on these to see if they could work for you. Have a great weekend!