Weekly Crop Commentary - 8/2/2024

Lou Baughman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

It's a new month, and we are seeing green on the screen, even though StoneX came out with yield estimates that are higher than USDA’s numbers. There have been trouble spots in the corn belt, but their survey says that the rest of the corn belt is making up for it. Only two states were lower than the USDA number on the corn and bean, Ohio was one for both corn and beans, Wisconsin was the other for corn and North Dakota for the beans.

Weather is going to be watched closely by the market this month, that is about all the news we have right now unless the low prices stir up export business. Our area got much-needed rains last evening and is forecasted for scattered showers/thunderstorms this afternoon with a cooldown for late next week.

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

It is August, and the next 30 days will show us what kind of crop we are going to have this year. I was out on my motorcycle over the weekend, and I felt a lot better about the crop in my backyard after I returned home. The area around Circleville is not very good. The corn was fired up a good two feet, and the beans were short; I feel bad for those guys.

The markets continue to head in the wrong direction. We are struggling to find a bottom.  With crop conditions the way they are for a majority of the growing area, it is hard to rally.  New crop export sales for both corn and soybeans are not good either so we are not getting any support there. StoneX came out with their August estimates and put corn at 182.6 and soybeans at 52.6; both would be records. They have Ohio at 190 corn and 57 soybeans, which are both down from last year’s records.

It is time to get cleaned up on old crop grain, we are still seeing good movement off the farm so there is still plenty of corn and soybeans to come to the local market. I know it is hard to sell new crop grain at these prices, but many are comparing this to 2014 when we hit harvest lows that year of 2.98 and 8.80 for cash grain in mid-October, hopefully it does not get that bad this year.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

In less than 7 weeks, the Farm Science Review will be in the rearview mirror and for most around here, that indicates the start of harvest. While some growers are hammering down on getting the bins cleaned out, others are closely watching or spraying their crop for diseases like tar spot. Thankfully most of us received a nice rain last night. Much of the Mechanicsburg, Marysville, and Richwood areas received 1.0 -1.25”, while the Derby area only received around 0.7”.

The market continues to lack any bullish news for a significant rally. Unfortunately, both December corn and November soybean futures made new lows on Thursday. It was nice to see it bounce off those lows today, but we are still down from last week’s close.

Agencies will start releasing yield forecasts, with StoneX publishing theirs last night. They have national yields higher than USDA’s projection and USDA’s record yields. Again, not good news for the market. Crop tours will take place in a couple of weeks, so we’ll see what they find and how the market reacts. Have a good weekend!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon; markets are finely in the green today as I write this. This week was the start of some of the private yield estimates, with Stone X coming out with their numbers yesterday. They have the National yield for corn at 182.3 bu per acre and beans at 52.6. They had Ohio at 190 bu per acre for corn and soybeans at 57 bu per acre. That works out to a National Production of 15.207 billion bu of corn and 4.483 billion bu of beans. If those numbers verify, it’s hard to see the markets rallying a whole lot in the near term. The funds are still extremely short in both corn & beans, so if something does change, the markets will react quickly.

Here in NE Ohio, most have been seeing some rain. It depends on where you live; some have been getting a nice amount, but others have not gotten as much. In the New Philly area, there is a pocket that is extremely dry as of today. Overall crops look pretty good, I don’t think that corn will be like we had a year ago, but I think yields will be ok. There is still a lot of old-crop corn sitting around to be sold yet, and that continues to hold basis levels pretty flat. Most farmers are trying to empty their bins out ahead of harvest.

The weather looks to be pretty good in the next week. With the rains we are seeing and temperatures looking to cool down, it will be beneficial to pod setting and filling. Have a great weekend!!!!