Weekly Crop Commentary - 7/26/2024

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. Once again, another month has just absolutely flown by. Not much rain to report this week, as I believe I had a total of 3 tenths at home. The forecast for next week looks to be wetter, as it looks like some forecasts are calling for an inch of rain. That would be perfect for kernel filling and the later corn pollinating. It sure would go a long way on beans, as well as we are getting into that pod filling stage. The market did have a nice rally this week and the farmer really rewarded it. There were some big days of receipts this week. Crop conditions in this week’s report did show some recovery in the south and more decline in the northern Midwest. Export sales for the new crop has started to gain momentum but are well behind the 5-year averages, so there is much more work to be done. Funds are still short in the grain markets, and prices are going to struggle until something can change their minds. We are in the heart of fair season here, and I encourage you all to go and support agriculture anyway you can.

Lou Baughman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

The market is quiet today after a small movement earlier in the week. Strength in the beans was due to the forecast of extreme heat in the August outlook map. Weather models keep changing and the threat of rapid onset drought could weaken. Right now, only 4% of corn and bean country is affected by drought. I guess it is a wait and see game with Mother Nature, so traders aren’t going to chance going into the weekend with this uncertainty, putting pressure on the market today.

Export sales were a little soft last week, but we did have a Flash Sale of beans yesterday of 10 million bushels for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year to unknowns. Old crop sales are struggling in all three commodities.

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

We are already almost to the end of July. Fair season is in full swing and fall sports practices are getting started. We are less than a month from high school football, so fall is coming.

The markets seem to have found a bottom for the time being. We are off of the lows set a couple of weeks ago. There feels like a couple of things going on that have helped support the markets for the last few weeks. First, the funds that have been close to record short have started to buy back some of their position, so this has helped take some downward pressure off of the markets. Secondly, there has been an improvement in export sales for both corn and beans, so this has led to some buying coming to the market.

I still feel it is time to get cleaned up on old crop grain. We are still seeing good movement off the farm, so there is still plenty of corn and soybeans to come to the local market. On new crop we are seeing activity pick up with the price improvement over the last couple of weeks as we approach 4.00 January delivery corn. It may not be what you want for a price but a 4 as your first number is much better than a 3.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Where did July go? We’re two months from harvest and those with grain still in the bin at home are starting to feel the summer slip away. There was quite a bit of farmer selling (both DP and on-farm bushels) mid-week when corn started to rally 10-20 cents and soybeans 20-30 cents. Friday’s market is taking back a lot of that rally though. As evident this week, rallies can be short lived. Weather forecasts will be watched very closely with hot temperatures expected through the Midwest in the coming weeks. If you still have unpriced grain on Delayed Price or in the bin, keep a close eye on any bumps and be sure to take advantage. We’d be glad to keep watch on target levels for you, also. Have a great weekend, and enjoy the Olympics over the next few weeks!