Weekly Crop Commentary - 6/7/2024

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. This week was yet another wild one in the grain markets. We worked our way lower for the majority of the week, and then Thursday came and we won back most of those losses. The week looks to be ending on a down note as all grains are sharply lower as I am typing this.

We got another shot of moisture this week. I had ¾" at my house, but it does sound like there were some folks to the north that got as much as 4 inches. The creeks were beginning to swell last night on the way home, so that’s a good verification that the north got much more rain than we did. Crops are looking absolutely fantastic! With ample moisture and 5 days of sunshine and cool temperatures in the forecast, nothing looks to change that at the moment. Bean basis has stayed steady for the week, and we got a flash sale this morning from the USDA that China bought 104,000 tons of old crop beans. I would guess those to be western beans that load off the PNW, but hey, its bean business that we weren’t expecting. Corn basis has started to settle back as the ethanol producers have ample coverage. Most of them were dealing with either closures or reduced dumping hours for most of the week. A good indication they need to back off spot basis levels. It looks like the wheat harvest this year will be a bit earlier than normal. We will have to see if the cooler weather we have in store slows progress a bit. Next week we will get a look at the monthly supply and demand update from the USDA, and at the end of the month we'll get the quarterly grain stocks and the much-anticipated final planted acreage from the spring. Hope you all have a great weekend.

Will Gase
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

Good afternoon and happy Friday! Rain came in on Thursday and was extremely volatile, anywhere from .5–2". Corn is coming along nicely and beans are slowly coming out of the ground. Wheat looks to be ahead of schedule by about 10 days, maybe looking at the last week of June for harvest. For those that still have some beans to plant it looks like the coming week is set to be dry, and then a week from now we will be in the 90s.

Since last Friday, Corn has been steady or down a couple of pennies. Soybeans have dropped around 30¢ on both old and new crop. Wheat has dropped even more getting close to being down 50¢ from last week. We have turned the calendar from planting season to growing season so we will be monitoring the weather forecast even more closely, looking for timely precipitation. Not much rain in the forecast for the next ten days so that is something to keep an eye on. Enjoy the nice weather this weekend!

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

Well, we are through the first week of June. Planting progress was right on the 5-year average - so much for late or no planting. Corn conditions came in at 75% good to excellent, the highest rating we have seen in several years for this early in the season.  The crops here in Champaign County look excellent. There is corn well over knee high that was planted early and most everyone caught some rain this week. The wheat is turning rapidly and if the weather forecast holds, it will move right along. I would not be surprised to see wheat late during the week of June 17th, well before the first of July.

The corn and soybean markets popped on Thursday, with some good demand numbers for corn bouncing off long-term support levels and drying weather. If we see some heat and dryness in the forecast and it comes to pass, we could see some strength in the corn and soybean markets.

I do not expect a huge rally but maybe get us to some price levels where you can get some new crop grain sold. With current projected carry-outs, it is going to be hard to get a big rally unless the weather turns out really dry, that has to be seen. Any kind of rally needs to be sold at this point, we have the crop in the ground, and it is growing. Don’t let a pricing opportunity pass because you think these markets have to go higher.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Good afternoon! The grain market this week reflects the nationwide planting progress made last week and actually being ahead of the five-year average. As of last Sunday, corn was at 91% and soybeans at 78% planted. Ohio’s effort in that stands at 90% corn (77% average) and 79% soybeans (66% average) planted. With most of the crop planted and above average in condition ratings, the market does not need to go up right now. Weather forecasts will be watched very closely, and we know how fast those can change. Any market rally (like Thursday’s) should probably be taken advantage of on some of your bushels.

Last week I drove to central Iowa for the annual hay trolley collector’s swap meet. All through the “I” states, they seemed to be in the same boat with the early planted fields and the just-planted fields. Locally, planting in certain pockets has been a struggle and I know a few who’ve had to switch some corn acres to soybeans. Rainfall amounts this week have been all over. From Derby to Mechanicsburg to Marysville, ranges were from 0.6” to 0.8”, while reports from around Richwood were 1.5” to 3.5”. A swath from Huntsville towards Byhalia and Mt Victory reportedly had 6-7”! The high rainfall areas with standing water will need some heat and sunshine to get replanting done, if any can be done. Have a great weekend!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon, planting progress is winding down here in NE Ohio. We have corn at many different stages. As I talk to farmers there is corn that is needing top dressed ASAP and corn just coming out of the ground. But all in all, most farmers are just about done planting. The weather pattern looks to be changing as we roll into the 2nd part of June. Temperatures look to be getting hotter and not as much rain as we have been seeing.

As far as markets go, we have seen all three commodities pull back fairly hard over the last week. As the market was rallying over the last month and the funds were buying back a tremendous amount of their short positions, I said that we would need something to keep the Bulls fed if we were to go higher or even hold where they were. We have not been able to get that and now we are seeing them sell off again and add back some of those short positions. The wheat market is not helping anything again here today. The smaller crop that is predicted to happen in both Russia & Ukraine has not changed, but we continue to see stories like what came out overnight when the Turkish government announced that they would stop importing wheat to support prices for their farmers, who are having a big crop this year. That helps to ration the world demand for wheat and puts the pressure on the corn & bean markets as well.

There is still time for a weather story to develop as we move into the warmest part of the year. But today, for these markets to rally, we are going to need a story. I hope all of you are doing well and I hope all of you will have a great weekend. Talk to you soon.