Weekly Crop Commentary - 6/28/2024

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. This was a rough week for the grain markets. December corn broke to new lows as traders anticipate 90 million acres of corn plantings. They are also anticipating a big year-on-year increase in corn stocks. Much of the corn belt did get needed rains this week to help alleviate the damage incurred the week prior. We did see another big decrease in crop ratings for Ohio again last week, but we'll see improving numbers next week. Soybeans also had a hard week. They, too, worked lower as the lack of new crop demand seems to be the driving force. Beneficial rains, and early wheat harvest allowing double crop plantings, have also added pressure. Speaking of wheat, we have seen a good amount of harvest activity. Up to now, quality and yields have been good, but with more rains forecasted for the weekend it will likely go downhill.

Lou Baughman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

A few are starting to get back to wheat harvest today before the rain sets in again in the morning. I have not heard how it is yielding. The only thing I have heard is that it’s not as good as last year.

Well, report was out, higher ending stocks across the board as anticipated. More corn planted and less beans was a little surprising. Acres could change because of the timing of rain and when the numbers were taken (June 1). Have a Happy 4th.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

The last business day of June and USDA had us sitting on the edge of our seats at noon for the Acreage and Stocks reports, only to be left in limbo. As I write, it’s been an hour post-scheduled release time, and I still don’t have access to the full reports. The major numbers have been released though, and both the corn numbers are ugly for sellers. Planted corn acres came in at 91.475 million acres, higher than the highest average trade estimate, and 1.4 higher than the March USDA report. The stocks report for corn also came in higher than anticipated at 4.99 billion bushels.

Soybean acres was the friendliest number we saw released today at 86.1 million, compared to the 86.5 USDA number in March and average trade estimate of 86.75. Obviously, the crops aren’t made yet, so there’s still time for a weather scare, but you can’t bank on that. If we see a recovery from today’s axe to the market, calculate your breakeven price and be ready to take advantage of any rallies to get some costs covered with new crop contracts. Have a great weekend, enjoy the Independence Day holiday, and continue to be safe!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon. USDA is out with their all-important Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres report today, and sure enough, we got a surprise in the planted corn acres. ATG was 90.475 and USDA is putting us at 91.475 million acres planted. That number was higher than the highest ATG. Quarterly Stocks for corn were also up, and the two together set the market up for a very bearish picture. As I write this, Sep corn is down .20 cents and Dec corn is down .18 cents.

Beans looked better with Quarterly stocks coming in at 970 million bushels and planted acreage coming in at 86.1 million acres. Both not far off the ATG. As we move forward, the markets will continue to focus on the weather.

Wheat harvest is just trying to get started here in the Eastern part of the state. Early yields look to be pretty good, and quality so far has not been an issue. Have a good weekend and a happy 4th of July next week.