Weekly Crop Commentary - 4/7/2023
Apr 07, 2023
Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing
April is well underway with much to be done as everyone finishes servicing equipment and get ready to hit the ground rolling with planting season upon us. The grain markets saw some initial follow through support on Monday from last Friday’s quarterly stocks and planting intentions report. However, things quickly quieted down the remainder of the short trading week on overbought technicals and lack of fresh news to feed the bulls. Both weekly export inspections and sales were somewhat disappointing, but also expected this time of year. March corn is back below the 100 and 200-day moving averages but found some support yesterday at the 20-day moving avg of $6.39 before closing at $6.435 CK. July beans saw a similar pattern dropping below the 100 day moving avg and found support at the 20-day avg of $14.585 before bouncing back up to $14.625 on the close. The 200-day avg however, is around $14.50, which has me concerned that if we see favorable spring weather and tractors in the field over the next few weeks, we could see another drop lower on nearby prices. Don’t get me wrong, I still feel that there will be some pricing opportunities for new crop, but let’s have a game plan and be prepared to execute that plan when the opportunities present themselves. Hope you all have a blessed Easter weekend with your families!
Lou Baughman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)
The three-day weekend and fears of China taking steps to retaliate for the meeting the Taiwan President had with US House Speaker weakened the market. Also, Brazil farmers are selling their massive crop off the combine, breaking the Brazil soybean basis premiums. There are reports of Brazil yields coming in better than expected and with the improving weather forecast it is adding more pressure to the market. Have a Happy Easter.
Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)
Director of Grain Purchasing
April is well underway with much to be done as everyone finishes servicing equipment and get ready to hit the ground rolling with planting season upon us. The grain markets saw some initial follow through support on Monday from last Friday’s quarterly stocks and planting intentions report. However, things quickly quieted down the remainder of the short trading week on overbought technicals and lack of fresh news to feed the bulls. Both weekly export inspections and sales were somewhat disappointing, but also expected this time of year. March corn is back below the 100 and 200-day moving averages but found some support yesterday at the 20-day moving avg of $6.39 before closing at $6.435 CK. July beans saw a similar pattern dropping below the 100 day moving avg and found support at the 20-day avg of $14.585 before bouncing back up to $14.625 on the close. The 200-day avg however, is around $14.50, which has me concerned that if we see favorable spring weather and tractors in the field over the next few weeks, we could see another drop lower on nearby prices. Don’t get me wrong, I still feel that there will be some pricing opportunities for new crop, but let’s have a game plan and be prepared to execute that plan when the opportunities present themselves. Hope you all have a blessed Easter weekend with your families!
Lou Baughman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)
The three-day weekend and fears of China taking steps to retaliate for the meeting the Taiwan President had with US House Speaker weakened the market. Also, Brazil farmers are selling their massive crop off the combine, breaking the Brazil soybean basis premiums. There are reports of Brazil yields coming in better than expected and with the improving weather forecast it is adding more pressure to the market. Have a Happy Easter.
Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)
Happy Good Friday. The days are getting longer, and the weather for the next 10 days looks like spring is here.
Corn and soybeans have set back from their recent recovery. With last Friday’s crop report the general feeling is we have enough crops today, but we will now have to see what planting season brings. We saw corn acres at 92 million but many the extra acres that the farmer was looking to plant with corn are in the Northern Plains and are still covered with snow, with more to come this week. The question on those acres is when will the snow melt so they can be planted and if it gets to be too late do they switch those acres to soybeans?
Rally’s need to be sold at this time as we get back to price levels we saw over most of the winter. The market is telling us it wants the crop today not tomorrow as we see large inverses in both our corn and soybean markets. In normal times we see some of our best new crop pricing in the next 60 days. If this happens you need to have offers in before you get busy planting and do not have time to make those decisions. Do not say ‘I will call tomorrow’ and then the market drops the next day, and you say to yourself it will come back. It is always better to sell into a rally then try to catch up in a falling market. Yes, it is always great to hit the home run but stringing a bunch of singles together gets us the same results.