Weekly Crop Commentary - 11/15/2024

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

Can’t believe it’s the middle of November already! Turkey day will be here before we know it. Hope everyone had a safe harvest this fall. Lower yields have certainly contributed to a shortage of bushels this year; however, many were undersold. So, whether you have bushels sitting in the bin or on DP, don’t forget to sit down with your merchandiser before the holidays and get a gameplan together for marketing those bushels and finalizing any end-of-year paperwork you may need. If you are planning to take advantage of deferred interest, you must have those bushels deferred before the end of this month.

There’s been a lot of ups and downs in the grain market since the election last week with a mix of bearish and bullish news. Bearish headlines include a rallying U.S. dollar and concerns over appointed officials in the Trump administration and the impact it could have on biofuels as well as exports. On the other hand, last Friday’s November WASDE report confirmed lower yields and production numbers contributing to a new 4 month high on corn and 1 month high on beans. We’ve also seen another good week of export sales and this afternoon’s NOPA crush report set a record high for the year, allowing beans to gain back its losses from yesterday. I expect that we could still see range bound markets as we head into the holidays, but we’ll continue to keep a close eye on South America in case any potential opportunities arise. Hope you all have a wonderful weekend!

Lou Baughman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

As we look at the markets this mid-November, there are a few factors that have influenced direction these last couple of weeks. The first is the Brazilian crop. As it stands now, if the weather cooperates for their growing season, it looks to be huge. Next, the pending US/China trade dispute. Will there be talks before President Trump takes office? This is a persisting fear for U.S. exports and trade relations. Finally, the burdensome globe supplies. All these factors continue to weigh on prices.

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

Harvest is officially wrapped up in our area. Now it is time to start thinking about next year. I know… already. We can start getting targets out there for 2025 new crop corn and bean contracts as well as having conversations about plans for the 2025 fall crop to set you up the best we can. We don’t want to be stuck with bushels on DP and low crop prices during harvest again. We can also start talking about getting targets and thoughts out about wheat! Let’s be proactive.

Corn and beans started out the week in the green—some leftover strength from the previous week’s yield cut—but they quickly took a turn for the worst midweek as the USD and stock markets strengthened. People were taking funds out of the commodities and putting that money into the stock market. To end the week, we saw beans, corn, and wheat rally back up today as stock markets fell this morning after the economic data release. Mexico’s corn production has been decreasing, with things looking toward them continuing to increase their corn imports. Mexico has been one of the leaders of U.S. corn exports as of late, so it will be interesting to see how those Mexico corn import numbers change as their domestic corn production decreases.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Good afternoon. Here on Friday, grains are trying to recover some of their losses from the four previous days. Last Friday, December corn futures made a 19-week high before we saw it taper back off this week. However, our cash price has seen minimal loss as our basis has improved twice this week. January soybean futures hit a 4-week high on Friday before this week’s decline. Cash bean basis has also improved, but not enough to offset the uncertainty in the market with what the new administration’s export policies might bring. The U.S. Dollar firming this week also has a negative impact on commodities. The stronger the dollar, the less competitive U.S. products are in the export market.

As you’re finalizing records for this year’s harvest, let us know if you need a Proof of Yield report for your crop insurance adjuster. It’s a handy report that gives them the load information they need. If you have not requested a settlement for unsettled grain, please let your local branch know if you want payment now or if you would like it to be deferred to January. To receive interest for deferred payments, we need to process it by the end of this month. Over the coming months, we can also easily run grain payment reports for you as you work on income and taxes. Let us know how we can help! Have a great weekend.

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon. The 2024 grain harvest is all but done. This is the earliest we have been done for years. Yields varied a lot. If you were lucky enough to get some rains then your yields were good. But if your area did not see a lot of rain then they were off. Overall, I would put our bean yield about 48 bpa and our corn crop at 170 bpa. The crop was extremely dry, and very little of the corn crop needed dried. With the cheaper prices and lower yields, that will help to some degree.

Markets continue to be range bound. Dec corn has tested 4.35 two times in the last month, and both times it failed to break through. Then, both times the market went lower. I believe we will chop around in the area we have seen over the last couple of months. It’s the same story for the beans. Brazilian rains again fell in the north yesterday, and coverage and amounts look strong through most of the country’s crop areas over the next week plus. If we don’t have a problem in South America, I just don’t know what drives beans higher.

Give us a call, and let’s talk about having some targets in and come up with a plan. Have a great weekend!!!