Weekly Crop Commentary - 11/1/2024

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

Happy November 1st – what a harvest it has been up to this point! When is the last time you’ve been finished this early? It’s amazing to see the long stretches of good weather that we’ve had to knock out this crop in a hurry. Still some corn and double crop beans coming in, but many are wrapping up.

We’ve rolled beans from the SX to the SF this week. SF futures tried to test their lows from back on 8/16/24 as they approached $9.77 on Wednesday. Since then, beans have been a boomerang gaining 30c the last two days and then losing half of that gain just this afternoon as we hit resistance on the 20-day moving average. Corn has been trading in a much more narrow range this week between the 20, 50, and 100-day moving averages around $4.10-4.15.

Export sales continue to be on the top end of estimates with flash sales of corn to Mexico and beans to China highlighting the week. A 3 ½ month high on soybean oil also seemed to aid the rally in the bean complex. Markets continue to watch South America weather in addition to evaluating yields across the Midwest as many in the west are setting records. Ohio got the short end of the stick this year. Despite the lower yields, I know many are still undersold and don’t have a game plan on those unpriced bushels. Please reach out to your local grain merchandiser to discuss your options, and begin looking at next year’s prices when you start making input purchases.

Don’t forget to turn your clocks back on Sunday (yes, apparently, we’re still doing this) and go out and vote Tuesday! Have a wonderful week.

Lou Baughman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

Disappointing rains in the area yesterday letting the harvest march on. Many have wrapped up their harvest but there are still a few working at it. If you need a proof of yield for insurance purposes, give us a call.

Beans have had three days in the green but couldn’t hold this afternoon.  Rising crude oil prices giving support and exports continuing to be active has helped the market. There are reports that Iran could be preparing for another strike on Israel. This creates concerns of escalation between the two countries. Gains in the market were mild indicating traders are only positioning for the weekend incase there is a significant attack. Have a safe weekend.

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

Happy first day of November! We are getting very close to being wrapped up with harvest over here, with many farmers already done. This was the fastest corn harvest we have seen since 2012 (81% done), and the fastest bean harvest since 2010 (89% done). The drought made everything ready all at once, and it seems like the scramble is about over. We are still seeing a few loads of corn here and there, as well as some double crop beans starting to come in. Don’t forget, Saturday night we change our clocks and fall back. Enjoy the much-needed extra hour of sleep!

We didn’t see any of the rain Thursday that we were expected to see. There is a system moving through early next week - let’s see if we get rain from that one instead. Some rain would be beneficial for planted winter wheat. The week started off in the red, but rebounded this morning, allowing some farmers to take advantage of the short rally. Right now, it seems that a good portion of China’s buying of US crops can be attributed as a buffer supply for potential US tariffs on exports. It will be interesting to see how next week’s election affects the markets.

Steve Bricher
Grain Operations Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

I am at the end of the harvest here in Champaign County.  We are down to a few customers that are finishing up. I would say our yields were down 12 to 15 percent from last year. The corn crop was the exact opposite of last year with very little corn that needed to be dried. November is going to be different from last year.

The markets are trying to move higher as harvest is finishing up around the country. We have had a couple of up days here toward the end of the week. I still am not bullish prices going forward. Yes, we may see some movement higher, but it will be met with farmer selling from here in the US or South America. We did not see the harvest pressure on the market that the market was expecting. It will be interesting to see what the USDA comes up with in January. We need to start thinking about what we want for the grain we have stored in our bins. Have a goal and get price targets in so we can get some of this crop moving and not wait until next summer.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Welcome to November! This was my 24th harvest with the company and there’s only one other time I recall harvest being done by Halloween. Such a strange feeling! Looking at the last 14 years of data from USDA Crop Progress reports, U.S.’s soybean harvest is at a record pace, 89% complete as of last Sunday. Corn harvest is at the second fastest at 81%, only behind 2012.

The market has been fairly flat this week, with nearby corn only having a six-cent trading range. Soybeans had a 30-cent window, and we’re looking to close the week in the middle of that swing. Cash basis levels continue to show improvements as end users seek bushels.

One thing to watch over the winter is the US Drought Monitor. According to the Ag In Drought report, over the past four weeks, corn production areas in drought have increased from 27% to 81%. About 74% of the Midwest is currently in a moderate or higher drought level. As much as I don’t want snow, we better hope for some kind of moisture over the winter. Have a great weekend and go Bucks!