Weekly Crop Commentary - 04/11/2025

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. Another wild week in the markets. The back and forth of tariffs sure had things all over the place. One interesting fact is that the USDA announced export sales of three cargoes of old crop beans and one cargo of new crop beans to unknown destinations. Historically, almost all the unknown destination purchases end up going to China. This has painted green on the screen to end the week for the grain complex. 

We got our monthly supply and demand update yesterday. We saw an increase of 100 million bushels of corn leaving via the export channel, but we did see a 25 million bushel decrease in the feed sector. Making a new reduction of 75 million bushels ending stocks.  We have not rationed any corn demand, other than what the avian flu created. 

We got our first look at planting progress on Monday night, and it came in at 2% complete vs the average of 3%. Folks in the deep south are starting to get a little on the latter side, and with the delta region getting up to 12” of rain last weekend what was planted certainly is hurt. Beans did see a minor change in demand, but are still ending up with a 340 million bushel carry out. This size of carry-out and cash bean prices above $10 typically don’t coincide with each other. As always have a great weekend, and I can’t wait to see what is in store for us next week.

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

Global markets this week have been taking hit after hit, but somehow, grain markets are weathering the storm. The news is still all about tariffs… but it does not seem like the grain markets will be reacting to the fight between the US and China for a while, as trade has pretty much halted between the two countries. All of the other countries that received retaliatory tariffs, however, have been given a 90-day pause and decrease in base tariffs for being cooperative. Over 75 countries have reached out to the US after these tariffs were put into place to work out an agreement. This was one of the goals that Trump had for implementing them in the first place. 

Grain markets are ending the week strong. The dollar weakened and money flowed from stocks into the grain markets, which are now looking attractive to investors. Soybeans still have a ways to move to look favorable again, but they are on the right track. 

Steve Bricher
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

We are two weeks into April, and the weather was better during the first two weeks of March. I do know that we have recharged our subsoil after last weekend. It looks like it will remain cool but there may be a chance for some field work next week.

It has been a whiplash for prices in the last couple of weeks. We have seen cash corn prices reach their highest since early February. The farmer has been an active seller here this week as we have rallied fifty cents since the first of March. With the wet weather, the farmer is looking for something to do and moving grain seems to be the best idea today. Soybeans have also improved over the last week as the trade war with China has played out more so in the Soybean market. We are not back to prices we saw earlier in the year, but we are fifty cents better than a month ago.

New crop values for corn and soybeans have also moved higher with new crop cash corn back over 4.00.  I have included a spreadsheet from Bailey at StoneX. As you can see if we get planted and have trend line yields, we can get to 2-billion-bushel carryout. If we get to 2BB carryout sub 4.00 corn is likely to happen. Keep this in mind as you are looking at getting harvest or corn out of your bins priced.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

What a wild week in the market world. We’re ending the week on another terrific day for grain sellers. For those who watch the market throughout the day daily, we’ve had some whiplash this week from jerk reactions on headlines, but it’s turned out well so far. Corn has seen 6 straight trading days in positive territory. Soybeans are on day 5 in the green, with three of those days having double-digit gains. 

Many of us are asking why we’re seeing this rally. I don’t think there is any one specific reason. Wednesday there was a flash sale announcement from USDA that “unknown destinations” bought 198,000 metric tonnes of beans. Even with that, the market was struggling and in the negative, until the president announced a 90-day pause in the tariffs for most countries, then the market took off wildly into the positive. With headlines changing daily, hourly even, it’s not a bad idea to take advantage of rallies like we’ve seen this week. Grain sales don’t have to be large, but something is better than nothing if it turns south again.

I also want to bring your attention to the new crop. Fall corn at Marysville is around the 4.25 neighborhood and fall beans are near 9.75. If you haven’t made any new crop sales yet, it may be time to take a good look and at least put some offers in place. Have a great weekend!