Weekly Crop Commentary - 03/21/2025

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. Hope everyone enjoyed that warm weather earlier this week. It looks like we are going to be in a more seasonal pattern for the next week. We continue to see above-normal rain chances for the next week also. The most recent 3-month precipitation outlook, released by the Climate Prediction Center, shows Ohio Valley continues to be forecasted to receive above-normal precipitation. The southeast and into the central part of the country is forecasted for equal chances, whereas much of the plains west will be looking for below-average rainfall. The drought monitor shows much of the southeast US seeing continued abnormally dry conditions along with much of the central part of the country. Planting progress resumed in the deep south this week after some much-welcomed rains.

Markets this week continued to see a converging pattern. There was a lot of news that hit the markets this week. Good export shipments and sales data were released, the Fed left interest rates alone for the moment, and ethanol grind was robust again on fancy margins. As predicted, we did get confirmation of the managed money folks selling off corn last week. They have sold a total of 200,000 contracts over the last couple of weeks so it will be interesting to see this afternoon’s report. All eyes will be focused on the prospective planting and quarterly grain stocks report at the end of the month.

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

It’s been a quiet end to the week with a lack of fresh headlines to fuel the bulls. Attention seems to be more focused on March Madness brackets than the grain markets. Argentine harvest progress is ahead of schedule at 14% complete, well above the three-year average of 6%. Meanwhile, concerns continue to mount over funds exiting the market, particularly the long position in corn. Without that volume, will we continue to struggle with bullish momentum?

On the policy front, the Fed opted to leave interest rates unchanged this week while all eyes are on the Trump administration ahead of the April 2nd deadline for additional tariff plans. Whether right or wrong, it’s at least forcing conversations—something crucial in building strong relationships. A key development to watch is the potential impact of new U.S. shipping fees on Chinese-made vessels, which could significantly affect our export competitiveness. StoneX’s Arlan Suderman reports that proposed service fees of up to $1 million per vessel could add more than 50 cents per bushel to U.S. grain exports, further tightening margins in an already challenging market. With over 55% of the world’s commercial fleet now built in China, these changes could have lasting implications for global trade flows. Stay tuned as we monitor how this unfolds.

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

March Madness has started, and as usual, there are upsets in the first round. I think that’s what makes this tournament so great is that someone can get hot at the right time and make a run to the final four. We have added YOUTUBE TV to our house this winter, and the 4-screen box is what this is made for. It does not turn between games, and you can watch all four and turn the sound on for the one you want to listen to.

Now for something not nearly as exciting as the tournament, the grain markets. Since our setback on corn and soybeans in late-February/early-March the markets have seemed to have found their footing. We recovered 25 cents from the lows in May corn a few weeks ago. We have also seen the basis improve after the market losses earlier in the month as the end users are trying to pry corn and soybeans from the farmers’ bins. I do not know what we are going to do direction-wise over the next few weeks with all the volatility in the financial and commodity markets due to what is going on in DC, but we are at least back to price levels that we saw in the early part of the year.

New crop prices did not take the tumble the nearby did, but we are below price points that the farmer seems to want to put on additional sales at this point. New crop corn has recovered and is back to 4.50 December futures. I am not saying we need to sell out whole crops at this point but IF we plant 94 million acres of corn AND have a good growing season, I think corn prices at harvest could be far below this price level. We are 10 days away from the quarterly stocks report and prospective planting report. This will set the market for the next three months as the traders will work off of these numbers until we see what was actually planted at the end of June.  

We are offering our corn and soybean Average Price Programs again this spring. These both worked out well for harvest bushels last year and history tells us that spring is the best time to get harvest bushels sold. Contact any of us if you have questions or want to put bushels in the program.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Happy Spring! It’s still cool, but the sunshine is beautiful. I hope you’re all enjoying it and getting started on your springtime work. There are soybeans in the ground already in the northern Madison County area.

The grain market hasn’t given us much to get excited about this week, although trading in a narrow range is better than a downtrend. Nearby corn basis improved by a nickel, and soybeans improved by 3 cents. With those changes, the cash corn bid is up about a dime and beans are down a few. While corn is trying to find a comfortable price level, soybeans have been dwindling. It’s especially noticeable when looking at a weekly SK chart. If you’re still holding on to old beans, anything above $10 will probably be a good opportunity to sell.

We’ve had great enrollment so far in the Average Price Contract Program. Corn and soybean enrollment is open until April 9th, so be sure to ask one of us about it. It’s a great chance to get some bushels priced during a historically price-friendly time for your new crop bushels. Have a great weekend and good luck with your March Madness brackets!