Weekly Crop Commentary - 03/14/2025

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. It sure has been another wild week in the corn market. Things started out higher to begin the week, but the market sentiment since Wednesday has been one of risk-off.  One will have to assume that we will see another big selloff from the managed money traders in next Tuesday’s commitment of the trader’s report. This week, they reduced their long position by over 117,000 contracts. The lack of definition on the tariff news keeps throwing the markets into a tailspin. The stock market seems to be experiencing the same thing, as it has sold off this week. The soybean market is still struggling with a big Brazilian crop coming to the market, managed money being net short the market, depressed crush margins as meals seem to be piling up, and trade fears. We have seen some nice planting progress in the south over the week, which is also adding to the bearish sentiment. We have the prospective planting report and quarterly grain stocks at the end of the month to shed more light on things. We are in the signup period for the average price contracts, please contact any one of the origination staff if you have interest.

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

The grain markets saw 20-30¢ swings this week as tariff headlines and the March WASDE report were digested. However, I do think we will continue to stay relatively rangebound until the Prospective Plantings Report at the end of the month. Export sales were solid this week, with soybeans and wheat both exceeding expectations. We’ve also seen tremendous participation in our Average Price Program enrollment this week—don’t forget the wheat deadline is next Wednesday, March 19th, and corn and soybean enrollment closes on April 9th. Looking forward to catching up with our eastern customers next week at the New Philadelphia and Canfield Grain Market Outlook Meetings on Tuesday, March 18th! Hope you all have a fun and safe St. Patrick’s Day weekend!

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

The markets have been volatile due to daily tariff changes and geopolitical tensions rising. This appears to have led to an up and down pattern as the market follows money flow and demand opportunities. All we can do is ride the waves and reward the high waves when we see them.

Along with the tariffs, there is uncertainty about the outlook of biofuels, such as 47Z in the United States. If we see this boom, soybean prices could reflect that increase in domestic demand. Until then, though, it is a waiting game to see what will happen.

As a reminder, if you are planning on enrolling any wheat bushels into the Average Price Program, next Wednesday (3/19/25) is the deadline for wheat enrollment. This is a great way to diversify your marketing plan!

Steve Bricher
Grain Operation Manager, Urbana (Region 3)

What a great week of weather! We will take this for the second week of March. I have seen a few tractors out in the fields doing some tillage work. I believe there was anhydrous put on in the Urbana area this week.

The farmer's selling has come to a crawl. After the rally in January and February and the big setbacks in the last few weeks, the farmers are on the sidelines today. With the nice weather, they are finding better things to do than move grain.

I could spend three pages of writing talking about everything going on in the world that is affecting the markets, but I will lose your attention long before that. I think it is safe to say that trying to keep up with the headlines will make your head spin. The one thing I can suggest is that you need to have a target for when, or if, the markets rebound and get the rest of your crop sold and maybe some new crop corn and soybeans on the books.

The next big report will be planting intentions on the 31st, this will set the base for the markets until the June acreage report. 

We are offering the average price program again this year for corn, soybeans, and wheat.  Give us a call if you would like more information.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Happy Pi Day! Luckily, I’ve got a little peanut butter pie left from a visit to the Der Dutchman bakery after our Grain Market Outlook meeting on Wednesday. Thank you to those who were able to attend. If you missed our meetings, look for a recorded version of our webinar in your  Portal/app Inbox under the Grain Marketing folder.

We’ve seen another week of non-fundamental news headlines driving a volatile grain market. Early in the week, corn gained a little but couldn’t sustain the momentum. May corn futures are still 16-ish cents above the lows set back on March 4th though, and soybeans are 26-ish cents above that day’s low. We’ve seen big swings in money flow and intraday price movements. Determining the nearby market direction is proving to be very difficult until we see how these headlines truly affect the supply and demand balance sheet. For now, I’d stick with the adage of rewarding a rally when we see it.

Next Wednesday, March 19th is the enrollment deadline for our wheat Average Price Contract program. Be sure to talk to your local grain merchandiser to get bushels signed up. The corn and soybean enrollment deadline is 4/9. Have a great weekend!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon let’s start out this week by giving thanks for the wonderful weather we have seen this week. Today will probably be the highest temp this year. Here in the Canfield area, we are projected to have a high of around 73 degrees. We have seen fertilizer being applied in places in the last couple of days. The start of the 2025 planting season continues to draw closer.

The grain markets continued this week to show the up-and-down movement with the uncertainty of what the tariff situation is going to look like. In the short term, I don’t have as much concern on the soybean front. The China beans that are still on the books to be shipped are believed to be sold to Sinograin in China, and they mostly purchase beans for China’s reserves. They are a state-backed company, so in theory, the government would be paying itself the tariff on those shipments. With the South American crop being harvested now and those beans much cheaper than U.S. beans, China’s needs will be coming from South America. My concern would be what next fall may look like. But that gives us time to work out those details.

On the corn front, I have a little more concern. Mexico is our number one importer of corn so we need to get the details worked out with them sooner rather than later, and as I have said in past weeks, I believe that will still happen sooner rather than later. But I don’t want to downplay the importance of it happening. Fundamentally, nothing has changed for corn or beans, and that is a good thing.

Lastly, we need to continue to watch what the weather does in the Southern Plains. It continues to be hot, dry, and windy, putting stress on the winter wheat crop. World stocks continue to tighten up some and if our crop looks like we could have some issues the funds could jump back into this market pretty quick. Have a great weekend!!!