Weekly Crop Commentary - 01/31/2025
Jan 31, 2025
Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division
Good afternoon. January is here and now gone. Another month just flew by. The grain markets had another big week of price action. We are hearing a lot of reports about bird flu. In Ohio this week, there were more than 4 million laying hens that were depopulated and over 150,000 turkeys. They seem to be quarantined to Mercer and Darke counties at the moment. Regardless, that is a large number of animals that won’t be consuming corn or bean meal. There are also starting to be more reports coming out of most of the southeast states. It doesn’t appear that egg prices will be coming down soon. On a bright note, ethanol margins bounced back this week, s, they are back in the black once again. Export sales and shipments of corn continue to be strong, but we are starting to see tariffs take place over this coming weekend which could be a spoiler to some of that. Soybean sales and shipments continue to be lackluster as crush margins, and lack of exports continue to weigh on them. Hope you all have a great weekend.
Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing
Impending tariffs set to take effect tomorrow continue to weigh on the market this afternoon. While President Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada tomorrow, it sounds like there will be a negotiation period until March 1st, allowing time for exemptions and continued negotiations. This news has more heavily impacted the corn market today due to Mexico being a top buyer of U.S. corn.
Meanwhile, the market continues to digest other non-tariff headlines as we monitor harvest progress in South America, upcoming February crop insurance prices, and U.S. planting intentions to shape the outlook for the remainder of the year. SH25 soybeans remain range-bound between the 20- and 200-day moving averages ($10.34 – $10.72), while CH25 corn is holding above its 20-day moving average of $4.76, with resistance seen earlier this week at $4.97. The key question now is whether funds will maintain their long position in corn.
As we look ahead, don’t forget to mark your calendars for Heritage’s regional grain marketing meetings in February and March. We look forward to discussing the 2025 outlook and introducing new features available in our Heritage Portal app. Wishing you all a wonderful weekend!
Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)
President Trump has been working on tariff threats and while this tactic worked on Colombia, tomorrow will tell if Mexico, Canada, and China come to a trade agreement to avoid tariffs, or if they will be put into place temporarily until a decision is made. These impending tariff threats appear to be a key driver in the market trending lower to end the week. We will see what next week brings in the markets after decisions solidify over the weekend on this issue.
On top of this, South America has been seeing widespread rains and ideal weather conditions. Harvest has begun and is progressing in Brazil, and US soybeans are going to have a hard time competing with the supply flooding the market, especially once harvest ramps up to its full potential.
Steve Bricher
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
It is already at the end of January. I am glad that the cold snap has come to an end at least for a while. I know our propane and fuel delivery drivers are glad it warmed up.
The market has been on a wild ride this week with new moves to the highest levels we have seen in 16 months on corn then we set back. Demand for corn is good, but the rally does not seem to balance with the current supply. We have an adequate amount of corn around the U.S., so we have no worries about running out, but the money flowed back into the commodity markets earlier this week. I believe we have seen the setback towards the end of the week because weather conditions in South America are improving. I would almost be willing to bet that before the summer is over, we will hear of soybeans being imported into the U.S. from Brazil. The numbers today say that it should happen, so they will keep a cap on how much soybeans can rally.
Harvest 2025 corn hit 4.00 again this week and soybeans hit 10.00. We saw a little selling. I do not think we need to sell our whole crop at that price, but it may not be a bad place to start, especially if we plant 95 million acres of corn this spring.
Look for information on the marketing meeting coming shortly.
Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)
As we close out yet another month, the grain market has seen a good bit of volatility this week as it works to find a comfortable level. We’ve seen some profit taking and unpredictability of future tariffs working against our recent bullish sentiment. Then Thursday after the close, the president confirmed that a floor of 25% tariffs will go into effect for Mexico and Canada on Saturday. Last night when the market opened, corn gapped lower as Mexico is a major importer of U.S. corn and Canada is an ethanol importer. The tariffs for China are uncertain yet, but could be 10%.
Midday Friday, sources are going back and forth on whether the tariffs go into effect February 1st or March 1st. Obviously, headlines changing daily, sometimes hourly, can make the market move fast.
Since quite a few of you have taken advantage of the old crop rally, it’s time to evaluate new crop goals. With harvest corn at $4+ and soybeans breaking $10 for a period this week, we’ve seen more farmers getting started with fall contracts. We’re also getting more target offers for higher levels in an effort to take advantage of short-lived rallies. Be on the lookout for information coming out about grain marketing meetings happening soon. Have a great weekend!
Vice President, Grain Division
Good afternoon. January is here and now gone. Another month just flew by. The grain markets had another big week of price action. We are hearing a lot of reports about bird flu. In Ohio this week, there were more than 4 million laying hens that were depopulated and over 150,000 turkeys. They seem to be quarantined to Mercer and Darke counties at the moment. Regardless, that is a large number of animals that won’t be consuming corn or bean meal. There are also starting to be more reports coming out of most of the southeast states. It doesn’t appear that egg prices will be coming down soon. On a bright note, ethanol margins bounced back this week, s, they are back in the black once again. Export sales and shipments of corn continue to be strong, but we are starting to see tariffs take place over this coming weekend which could be a spoiler to some of that. Soybean sales and shipments continue to be lackluster as crush margins, and lack of exports continue to weigh on them. Hope you all have a great weekend.
Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing
Impending tariffs set to take effect tomorrow continue to weigh on the market this afternoon. While President Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada tomorrow, it sounds like there will be a negotiation period until March 1st, allowing time for exemptions and continued negotiations. This news has more heavily impacted the corn market today due to Mexico being a top buyer of U.S. corn.
Meanwhile, the market continues to digest other non-tariff headlines as we monitor harvest progress in South America, upcoming February crop insurance prices, and U.S. planting intentions to shape the outlook for the remainder of the year. SH25 soybeans remain range-bound between the 20- and 200-day moving averages ($10.34 – $10.72), while CH25 corn is holding above its 20-day moving average of $4.76, with resistance seen earlier this week at $4.97. The key question now is whether funds will maintain their long position in corn.
As we look ahead, don’t forget to mark your calendars for Heritage’s regional grain marketing meetings in February and March. We look forward to discussing the 2025 outlook and introducing new features available in our Heritage Portal app. Wishing you all a wonderful weekend!
Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)
President Trump has been working on tariff threats and while this tactic worked on Colombia, tomorrow will tell if Mexico, Canada, and China come to a trade agreement to avoid tariffs, or if they will be put into place temporarily until a decision is made. These impending tariff threats appear to be a key driver in the market trending lower to end the week. We will see what next week brings in the markets after decisions solidify over the weekend on this issue.
On top of this, South America has been seeing widespread rains and ideal weather conditions. Harvest has begun and is progressing in Brazil, and US soybeans are going to have a hard time competing with the supply flooding the market, especially once harvest ramps up to its full potential.
Steve Bricher
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
It is already at the end of January. I am glad that the cold snap has come to an end at least for a while. I know our propane and fuel delivery drivers are glad it warmed up.
The market has been on a wild ride this week with new moves to the highest levels we have seen in 16 months on corn then we set back. Demand for corn is good, but the rally does not seem to balance with the current supply. We have an adequate amount of corn around the U.S., so we have no worries about running out, but the money flowed back into the commodity markets earlier this week. I believe we have seen the setback towards the end of the week because weather conditions in South America are improving. I would almost be willing to bet that before the summer is over, we will hear of soybeans being imported into the U.S. from Brazil. The numbers today say that it should happen, so they will keep a cap on how much soybeans can rally.
Harvest 2025 corn hit 4.00 again this week and soybeans hit 10.00. We saw a little selling. I do not think we need to sell our whole crop at that price, but it may not be a bad place to start, especially if we plant 95 million acres of corn this spring.
Look for information on the marketing meeting coming shortly.
Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)
As we close out yet another month, the grain market has seen a good bit of volatility this week as it works to find a comfortable level. We’ve seen some profit taking and unpredictability of future tariffs working against our recent bullish sentiment. Then Thursday after the close, the president confirmed that a floor of 25% tariffs will go into effect for Mexico and Canada on Saturday. Last night when the market opened, corn gapped lower as Mexico is a major importer of U.S. corn and Canada is an ethanol importer. The tariffs for China are uncertain yet, but could be 10%.
Midday Friday, sources are going back and forth on whether the tariffs go into effect February 1st or March 1st. Obviously, headlines changing daily, sometimes hourly, can make the market move fast.
Since quite a few of you have taken advantage of the old crop rally, it’s time to evaluate new crop goals. With harvest corn at $4+ and soybeans breaking $10 for a period this week, we’ve seen more farmers getting started with fall contracts. We’re also getting more target offers for higher levels in an effort to take advantage of short-lived rallies. Be on the lookout for information coming out about grain marketing meetings happening soon. Have a great weekend!