Weekly Crop Commentary - 01/24/2025

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

Good afternoon. Hope everyone was able to navigate the polar vortex this week. It made for a couple of slow days on the grain dumping front, that’s for sure, but on the news front, it sure has been a big week. The Presidential Inauguration started things off. There are still a lot of developments that need to take shape here. There are talks daily on tariffs and what they will do to our agricultural exports. They will surely have an impact, but the size and scale are yet to be determined. We did see this week that export sales of both corn and soybeans were at the upper end of trade estimates. We are still on pace to exceed the current USDA projections for both commodities. 

Biofuels are also a hot topic. The new director of the USDA hasn’t been friendly in past comments but seemed to be during the confirmation hearings. Ethanol production continues at a record pace, and this is truly amazing when all you hear is how bad the margins are. Ethanol stocks have grown in each of the last three weeks, so there seems to be a bit more of the story to be told. 

We broke some milestones in the new crop prices this week. We had corn above $4, and beans broke that $10 threshold. These are attractive prices to get started on marketing the crop that will be planted this spring. We ultimately don’t know where the market will take us; that’s what makes it a market. Goals are still the key, and we need to reward the market if those are met. Have a great weekend.

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

Donald J. Trump is president again, and we saw a big rally early this week as a result of him not implementing instant tariffs, as he had previously said he was going to do. This resulted in the large jump in the bean market and a weakened US dollar. It was estimated that planted corn acres are going to be up 700k and planted bean acres down 700k for the United States this year. The markets reacted negatively to the Argentine export tax cuts at the end of the week. These cuts sound like they will be temporary, but they are causing Argentina to be more competitive in the world market, making their commodities more desirable.

Steve Bricher
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

What a week. We saw President Trump sworn in and a massive number of executive orders signed. To say he hit the ground running would be an understatement. The markets and governments around the world are trying to decide how they will affect trade and deals with the U.S.

We will have to see how all of this is going to affect domestic policy for the bio-fuel industry. We know he is not a fan of the Green New Deal, so what does all this do to the bio-fuel push? We will just have to wait and see.

Corn and soybean markets continue to move higher. Cash corn has hit its highest level in 15 months. Soybeans have also had a good run but seem to be hitting the ceiling. I am still telling customers that we need to keep selling into this rally. I am always a firm believer in rewarding rallies, and we need to continue to do that.

Harvest 2025 corn hit 4.00 cash earlier this week, and we saw a little selling. I do not think we need to sell our whole crop at that price, but it may not be a bad place to start especially if we plant 95 million acres of corn this spring.

Look for information on marketing meetings coming soon.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

It was a short trading week with a holiday on Monday, but the grain market continued to climb higher most days. Even with the market down today, corn, beans, and wheat are all higher than where they closed last week. After the inauguration, market fears of immediate China tariffs subsided as it appears the new administration will take a more measured approach to trade deals. South American weather also added some bullish sentiment to the market. Rains in northern Brazil are slowing soybean harvest and the planting of their safrinha corn crop. Continued dryness in Argentina is also putting production totals into question. More bullish headlines came to the forefront on Thursday when the Ag Secretary nominee committed to supporting biofuel production, protecting that demand.

While we may be off the highs, these prices are still at levels worth selling a portion of your bushels if you haven’t already. If you’re not ready to pull the trigger, at least put in an offer for a price you’re comfortable with. We will also gladly watch a “call only” offer for you – meaning you’re not committing to a specific number of bushels, but you want to be contacted if we reach a certain price. Have a great weekend and we’ll chat next week!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon. It’s been another wild ride this week with the markets. March25 corn has rallied to a 6-month high this week. Yesterday it topped out at $4.9450. We are .60¢+ off the lows. I believe there will be a lot of resistance at $5.00. This would be a good time to price some of that unpriced corn. The next big USDA report comes on March 31st, when we get the prospective planting numbers. Most people think that we will see an increase in corn acres this year.

Soybeans also saw another rally this week. Yesterday was a real up-and-down day in the bean market. We saw a .28¢ trading range in the bean market yesterday. The market took off around noon yesterday when Donald Trump's nomination for Ag Secretary said at her confirmation hearing that she is "committed to supporting biofuels and plans to work with other agencies, including the EPA and Treasury, on issues like the 45Z Clean Fuels tax credit”. As soon as the market heard that, we were up +.20¢ per bu. But by day's end, we could only hold +.05¢ of that. These are the kinds of things that it will probably take in the short term to move the market a lot. South American beans are soon to be hitting the world market, and depending on who you listen to, they are as much as $1.00 to $1.30 a bushel cheaper landed China than U.S. beans are.

Please give us a call about a number of different ideas for us to help you raise that weighted average per bu. Have a great weekend.