Weekly Crop Commentary - 01/17/2025

Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division

At the start of the week, the markets picked up right where they left off, but they calmed down as we approached midweek. We had a big risk-off day on Thursday, and then they went right back up to end the week. The digestion of the data dump last Friday has been quite interesting. The appreciation in the board and the influx of cash movement of grain is impressive to say the least. In the interior, basis levels have held up well. The USDA, with one swipe of the pen, took away 198 million bushels of corn and 90 million bushels of beans from carryout. The East has been hit the hardest with those inventory decreases. Not sure why, but it seemed to take people by surprise.  

Anyhow, this has allowed the chance to get bushels sold at profitable levels. We also need to be watching for new crop prices. There are folks talking about a 95 million acre corn crop for 2025. If that is the case, and we don’t have a significant weather event, we will be looking at a massive corn crop coming at us next fall. We don’t always know what the future holds, but we can mitigate some of the risks when the market gives us the opportunity to do so.

Lou Baughman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

Producer-selling increased this week with the recent rally in the markets. It was mostly old crop, but they were also putting targets in place for new crop. Markets will be closed Monday for MLK Jr. Day, but we will be here braving the cold for you. Tuesday, we have a new President. Be mindful that there is no telling what President Trump has planned to implement first.

South America’s weather forecast put a damper on the bean market Thursday. Today, the markets have reversed, regaining some of yesterday's losses. The U.S. is expecting bitter-cold temperatures at the beginning of the week, so keep warm.

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

Happy Friday! It felt like a grain market roller coaster this week. We started off the week with grain markets high, still following through on the bullish USDA January report. We fell off of those highs throughout the week as we saw profit-taking and the dollar strengthen. Markets struggled to rally back up, as Argentina and Brazil’s soybean production estimates were not cut and are still on the rise. As they have been seeing ideal weather, it is looking like they will sustain their projected record crop. We are heading into the weekend with markets recovering from the drop they saw yesterday after Trump and China’s president had discussions about trade and a possible trade deal.

Markets will be closed on Monday due to it being Martin Luther King Jr. Day. It is also inauguration day as well. On top of that, it is supposed to be very cold, so bundle up and stay warm!

Steve Bricher
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

We are a week post crop report. We saw some follow-through buying come to the corn and soybean markets on Monday, which pushed them to their highest levels in months. It is said that a bull market needs to be fed every day with news as to why it needs to continue. So, without fresh news and weak export sales, we saw some profit-taking here on Thursday. As I write these comments on Friday morning, we are slightly higher.

I am friendly to corn going forward, as I do not think we should see a huge selloff at this point. I have been telling customers to continue to sell into the rally. Our corn prices today are higher than almost any point last year. Stocks here in Ohio will be tight but overall, we have plenty of corn to take care of our needs going forward. Hard to find a reason for Soybeans to move higher, we are still looking at a 300+MB carryover. South America will have record production, soybeans are 75¢ to 90¢ per bushel cheaper in South America, and the strength of the U.S. dollar is making it more attractive for China to buy South American beans. Like corn, any continuation of this rally needs to be sold.

New corn and beans are going to be interesting. The numbers tell us that today, we should see additional corn acres as we are between 2.2 and 2.3 to 1 corn-to-bean ratio. Normally, anything under 2.5 leads to more corn acres. Some podcasts and market analysts say we could see 95 million acres of corn. This would be close to the number of acres we saw planted in 2023. If this happens, we should see a reduction in bean acres planted in 2025. The other possible positive for soybeans is the continued expansion of crush capacity here in the US, which means more demand for soybeans here. The downside is we need to find somewhere for the soybean meal to go.

Let’s get targets in on old and new crops. If we can get some grain sold as this market moves higher, it should help your profitability in 2025.
 

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

It’s been a busy week! Comparing the current market (as of 1pm) to pre-report last week, cash corn is up 25¢ and cash soybeans up over 30¢. It’s been a fantastic selling opportunity for farmers and a lot of you have taken advantage. Many have opted to sell delayed price bushels, putting an end to accumulating charges. March corn futures (CH25) hit fresh highs today, not seen since June. March soybeans (SH25) are off their highs from Tuesday, but I believe it’s still a good place to get sales on the books for delivery now or later this spring. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the coming days, with the markets closed Monday for MLK Jr Day, unknown possibilities of new presidential executive orders, and yields in the South American harvest that has just begun in parts of Mato Grosso, Brazil.

New crop for Fall 2025 hasn’t gained as well as old crop, but it is up over the last week. December corn (CZ25) hit a 3-month high this week at 4.5975, putting Marysville bid at 4.10 for Oct-Nov delivery. November soybeans (SX25) hit a 2-month high at 10.5725, creating a bid of 9.97 for Sep-Nov delivery to Marysville. Chances are good we still see some kind of spring/summer rally on those, so in the meantime, calculate your potential break-even prices and have a plan in place. Give us a call with your goals and we can put in offers, even if they’re still 20¢, 30¢, 50¢+ away. Enjoy the “heat wave” today and tomorrow while you can. Have a great weekend and Go Buckeyes!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon. Once again today, markets are back in the green. Soybeans are well off the low, and I don’t look for them to test that again anytime soon. Corn got a very positive report last Friday from USDA and are up 10¢ again today.

South American weather has been a mixed bag over the last few weeks. Argentina is expected to see some rain over the weekend with a decent coverage area, but there's not a lot of rain in this system. After that, it looks like it will dry back out in the 6–10 day forecast.

Overall, Brazilian rains look to be better over the next 6–10 days. They are not as dry as Argentina has been. In the longer term, we will need to see how that progresses.

Farmer sales have been very good over the last week, and the farmer has rewarded this market. Give us a call to put some new targets in. Thanks for your business, and have a great weekend.