Weekly Crop Commentary - 9/27/2024

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

It's been a busy few weeks in the fields! We've made a big jump on beans, and it’s crazy to think we’re not even at October 1st yet. The early beans coming in have been averaging around 50-55 bushels per acre with moisture levels right around that 10% mark. Starting to shell corn this week, but it’s been quiet so far in terms of yield reports. Moisture seems to be sitting around 14% on average.

Now, on the grain market side of things, it’s been a rewarding week. We’re wrapping up in the green after another strong rally. The big drivers? Fed rate cuts, dryness down in Brazil, some short covering by the funds earlier this week, and, of course, escalating tensions globally, especially in Russia and Israel. Plus, there's talk of a possible U.S. port strike next week that could shake things up even more.

That being said, I think this market has a cap. With the U.S. September stocks report coming out Monday at noon, and the expectation of some large numbers and a big crop coming off, it’s a good time to lock in those gains. Make sure you’re taking advantage of this rally while you can. Also, don’t forget that Monday is the last day to price any remaining DP bushels before the new rates hit. You can check our website for discount and rate sheets.

On a personal note, we had almost 2 inches of much-needed rain at my place this week, with more on the way this weekend. It’s giving us a little breather before we gear up again mid-week. Hope you all have a great weekend, and don’t get blown away! Go Bucks!

Lou Baughman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

Here we are, the last Friday of the month as we ease into harvest. After the rains Monday, some producers switched to corn to keep things moving. For this early in the season, corn moistures are low. The way the weather is looking, we will be into corn harvest for awhile.

Markets had a good week, with beans jumping around 40¢ and corn 15¢. South America having weather issues, and the funds getting out of their short positions put the green on the screen. However, I wouldn’t say it is a bull market, we still have low demand to work with. Export sales for last week were kind of sad, only beans came in the range of expectations. If you haven’t sold anything for fall, maybe reward the market move and contract a few bushels. Have a safe weekend.

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

It's officially Autumn! Much-needed rain and cooler temperatures were seen this week, putting some moisture back into the fields and affecting dry down… and thankfully settling some of the dust! Rain early this week relaxed the bean harvest in the area. We saw more corn than beans come across the scale this week due to the rain. Remnant rains from Hurricane Helene are expected to reach into the ECB through the weekend, which would further stall harvest. Looking into next week, though, things are looking to dry back out.

Soybeans were definitely in the green for most of this week, and were the talk of the town, hitting two-month highs, with Upper seeing $10.00 beans at points. They are currently sitting above the 50-day moving average. Some causes for this rally point to the continued dryness in Brazil and the fear of inflation after the Fed cut interest rates, which is drawing funds back into the commodity sector. We continue to see Fed short coverings support the grain and oilseed markets.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

The end of September is here, and that brings the USDA’s Quarterly Stocks report on Monday. We’ll get our final ending stock number on the 2023 crop and know precisely what we’re starting with for the year ahead. Even locally, there was a good bit of old corn still on the farm to start this new year, so at noon Monday, we’ll see if the market has the right number built into it or if the USDA throws us a surprise.

This week’s rally has been a great opportunity to price some bushels ahead of the report and ahead of delayed price fees kicking in on October 1st. For the Heritage locations on the west side of the state, DP charges will be the same as last year: 10¢ flat plus 10¢ per bushel per month pro-rated on a daily basis. All corn and soybean bushels currently on DP will receive these charges if not sold by the end of the day Monday.

Since the Fed decreased the interest rate last Friday, the Funds have been buying soybeans and reducing their short positions. This, along with concerns about dryness in Brazil during soybean planting, has driven the rally in the soybean complex. Brazil is not in a dire situation yet, but it’s something to watch through October. Locally, we’re finally getting some much-needed rain, although I think you’d agree that its timing could have been better. Have a great weekend!